Recently, a number of provinces have witnessed "restrictions on electricity". Affected by the peak period of electricity consumption and the "dual control of energy consumption", the electricity load in many places has recently increased sharply. Since September, my country has issued various power outages and power restrictions in Yunnan, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other provinces. measure.

　　 Recently, a reporter from "Securities Daily" interviewed a number of experts to deeply analyze the "secrets" behind the power rationing from the three perspectives of why power rationing, its impact, and how to deal with it?

　　 Why is there a power cut?

　　 According to the National Energy Administration, as of the end of August, the country’s installed power generation capacity was 2.28 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. In the composition of power generation, thermal power accounted for 73%, and hydropower accounted for 12.47%.

Dong Xiaoyu, a senior expert of Zhongguancun Development Group and a special researcher of the Policy Research Center of China Energy Research Society, told reporters, "The implementation of this year's power curtailment policy is simply a problem on the power supply side. The core is the deviation of the power supply from the demand curve. It is the rise of coal prices that caused thermal power companies’ power generation costs to increase or even lose money. Thermal power companies’ low willingness to generate electricity and insufficient thermal power output directly led to insufficient power supply. Second, my country’s rapid economic recovery and effective epidemic prevention and control have concentrated global production and supply. The huge production capacity of the chain, the scissors gap between the excessive growth of electricity demand and the contradiction between supply is getting bigger and bigger; the third is that the local government has a certain deviation in the implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutral policies in the process of energy structure adjustment. Under the condition of switching from traditional energy sources, the dual control of energy consumption can be simply added."

　　 In addition to power shortages and rising coal prices, the power curtailment and shutdown in some provinces is not unrelated to the dual control of energy consumption.

Independent financial commentator Zhang Xuefeng said: "The dual energy consumption control policy is a policy that has been implemented for many years. This policy is of great significance to the adjustment of the economic structure. However, the energy consumption dual control policy indicators have not been increased in 2021. Power curtailment is A means to implement the dual control policy for energy consumption. This is due to the previous'replenishment work phenomenon' that occurred during the implementation of the policy because the indicators did not meet expectations."

Hu Qimu, chief researcher of the China Steel Economic Research Institute, told reporters: "Power curtailment is one of the specific measures to implement the dual control of energy consumption. It is mainly targeted at the manufacturing industry and is a rigid energy constraint. The expansion of electricity to residents’ daily life has affected people’s livelihood, which is actually contrary to the original intention of this policy."

Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, believes that “the power curtailment policies introduced in many places are caused by the tight coal supply and conflicts in coal prices on the one hand, and the introduction and implementation of environmental protection and capacity reduction policies on the other. It is caused by unmatched and unsystematic."

What is the impact of 　　?

　　 On August 17, 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Barometer of the Completion of Energy Consumption Dual Control Targets in Various Regions in the First Half of 2021", which shows that the current national energy conservation situation is very severe.

In the first half of the year, the energy consumption intensity of 9 provinces (regions), including Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, and Jiangsu, rose instead of falling year-on-year, reaching a first-level warning; Zhejiang, Henan, Gansu, Sichuan, Anhui, The 10 provinces of Guizhou, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Jiangxi did not meet the schedule requirement in the first half of the energy intensity reduction rate, and reached the second-level warning.

　　 After the completion of the "dual control" target in the first half of the year, all localities have accelerated their pace to promote the dual control of energy consumption. Recently, the dual control of energy consumption in many places has become stricter, and the production of energy-consuming industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals, textiles, etc. have been affected to a certain extent, and production has been reduced or stopped. On September 29, Cangzhou Dahua issued an announcement stating that due to the tight supply of electricity and coal, the company's TDI device production, storage and externally mined steam would be out of supply.

　　 In addition to Cangzhou Dahua, many listed companies have responded to the impact of power curtailment. Among them, Wanan Technology stated that the company and its subsidiaries have begun to implement a power curtailment policy; Chujiang New Materials stated that the implementation of the curtailment policy is expected to have a certain impact on the company's production and sales; Liuhua said that the Luzhai branch is expected to stop production until September 30; Del In the future, the company and some subsidiaries will temporarily restrict production and stop production.

　　Dong Xiaoyu said, “The policy of dual energy consumption control has led to production restrictions and shutdowns in most industries, which will have a certain impact on manufacturing capacity and fluctuations in product market prices.”

Wanlian Securities pointed out in the research report that many segments of the chemical industry belong to high-energy-consuming industries. This dual-control upgrade of energy consumption has caused chemical companies to start operations and tighten the supply of chemical products, thus ushering in a wave of growth. Price surge. But in fact, due to the substantial reduction in supply due to restrictions on start-ups, it is easy to lead to the phenomenon of no market for chemical products.

Ping An Securities stated in its research report that power and production restrictions have increased the performance uncertainty of most industrial manufacturing industries. Among them, the traditional upstream/midstream industries are facing outdated production capacity elimination and advanced production capacity is less affected. The mid-downstream manufacturing industry May face pressure from rising costs or delayed delivery of upstream products. In the medium and long term, the green transformation of the energy structure under "carbon neutrality" will increase the demand for new green power infrastructure such as wind power, photovoltaics, and energy storage.

Zhang Xuefeng pointed out that the impact of power cuts on the economy is more harmful than good. It is the ultimate measure to ensure the safety of the power grid. Its disadvantages not only affect the normal production and operation of the industrial sector, but also extend to residents' electricity consumption and even affect residents. Normal life.

  how to respond?

　　 With the continuous fermentation of the news of power rationing, the National Development and Reform Commission stated on the energy supply guarantee for this winter and next spring that it will take multiple measures to strengthen the regulation of supply and demand to ensure a stable supply of energy this winter and next spring, and ensure the safety of residents' energy use.

　　Dong Xiaoyu said that what happened this year is a combination of accidental factors and the inevitable trend of energy structure adjustment and transformation under the background of the global epidemic situation and economic recovery. Such problems should be avoided in the future. The first is to take into account the dialectical relationship between economic growth and the dual control of energy consumption, and to handle the coordination and unity of incentive targets and restraint targets; the second is to increase the flexibility, predictability, and overall planning of the discretionary decision-making and control mechanism; Continue to deepen the pace of market-oriented reforms, increase the reform of the price mechanism of energy products, and establish a transmission mechanism for energy to follow changes in market supply and demand.

In Bai Wenxi’s view: “The country should deepen reforms to give full play to the market’s ability to allocate resources and use price guidance to achieve the balance of supply and demand in the electricity market. Intervene in a timely manner, so as to prevent this situation from happening in the future."

Hu Qimu pointed out, “In the future, efforts will be made from both sides of supply and demand. On the one hand, the supply side must ensure supply and stable prices, and on the other hand, it must vigorously develop new energy. In the future, my country’s power supply will focus on green energy such as wind power, photovoltaic power generation, and hydropower. On the demand side, on the one hand, we must suppress unreasonable demand, on the other hand, we must improve energy efficiency. The ultimate goal is to achieve the goal of carbon reduction and achieve green development."